Back on a sunny October afternoon at the State Fair of Texas, not many Sooner fans would have thought that their team would still have a shot to make a run at the 2015 College Football Playoff. Oklahoma had just suffered an embarrassing 24-17 defeat to a 1-4 Texas Longhorns squad who up to that point in the season had found a way to lose every game against anyone not named Rice. The Sooners were dominated on both lines of scrimmage, allowing 313 rushing yards to Texas, while the Horns defensive line wreaked havoc on the Sooners’ offensive line allowing just 67 rushing yards and chasing Baker Mayfield around the whole day. Since that day, it’s hard to argue that #12 Oklahoma could have been more impressive in their following four games than they have. They have outscored their opponents, albeit the likes of Kansas St, Texas Tech, Kansas, and Iowa St, by the score of 232-50 in impressive fashion with over 50 points in each game. The once shaky offensive line that Texas manhandled has gelled, and Oklahoma has averaged almost 300 rushing yards per game since. That along with Baker Mayfield completing over 75% of his passes for 1200+ yards and 14 TDs in that stretch, have the Sooners and their fans feeling confident for the home stretch of the season.
That stretch starts this weekend with a trip to Waco, Tx to face #6 Baylor, a team that has put a damper on OU’s last two seasons when the Sooners were whooped by the Bears. The Bears are fresh off a 31-24 Thursday night victory at Kansas St, where true frosh QB Jarrett Stidham threw for over 400 yards and 3 TDs in his first career start filling in for starter Seth Russell who was lost for the season. The Bears will not be short on confidence coming into McLane Stadium, which is poised for a “black out”, with Baylor wearing the same uniforms it wore when it punished then #10 Oklahoma 41-12 back in 2013.
I expect this game to once again come down to the line of scrimmage, just like the game against Texas. Baylor boasts one of the best, if not the best, D-line in the Big 12 with guys like Shawn Oakman on the edge and Andrew Billings inside. Oklahoma will have to be able to run the ball effectively with Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon to compliment the passing game. If the Sooners cannot run the ball, Baylor will be able to pin their ears back and get after Mayfield. Look for Oklahoma’s top rated Big 12 defense to look to do the same thing to Baylor. Limit the effectiveness of RB Shock Linwood running without having to commit too many men to the box. If they can do this, look for defensive coordinator Mike Stoops to try and confuse the young QB Stidham with blitzes and disguised coverages.
In the end, I think Oklahoma will be able to pull off the upset in Waco. Both offenses are explosive, but I believe that the Sooners have improved enough on offense to help out the defense this year. Last year Oklahoma’s defense was on the field for what felt like the whole game, while the offense was struggling. A much-improved offense will keep the defense fresher and the whole team confident. Look for Baker Mayfield to have a big day and the Sooners to stay on a roll heading into big games against TCU and Oklahoma State.
Prediction: Oklahoma 45, Baylor 35