For Kirk Cousins, it’s going to come down to the second half of the season, the stretch run that will make or break the Washington Redskins’ season … and maybe his bank account.
Cousins is just one of the centerpiece players whose free-agent prospects will be significantly impacted by the back half of the NFL season. But none of his peers have a more difficult path, with the Redskins facing six potential playoff teams in their final seven games. How Cousins plays in that stretch (and possibly beyond) will ultimately determine where he falls in the free-agent class this offseason – if he reaches free agency at all.
With that in mind, here’s a look at the top player headed for free agency at each position, and how their prospects shape up heading into the second half of the season …
Kirk Cousins might have enough star power to earn another big contract. (Getty Images) Kirk Cousins might have enough star power to earn another big contract. (Getty Images)
MoreQUARTERBACK
Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins: He’s still an up-and-down player and makes some head-scratching throws at times. But he’s also had good stretches and appears to be on his way to another solid statistical season. There will always be skeptics, but Cousins appears to be – at worst – a middle to lower-middle starter in the NFL. Those guys are commodities in the offseason (See: Sam Bradford). And Cousins still has time to improve upon that ceiling. If the last few games are an indication where he’s going, the Redskins will have to finally make the long-term commitment. But if they don’t, only a complete collapse will keep Cousins from being one of the biggest free agents of this offseason.
Next three:
Brian Hoyer, Chicago Bears
Case Keenum, Los Angeles Rams
Mike Glennon, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
RUNNING BACK
Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers: When he’s on the field, he’s one of the three or four best running backs in the NFL. But that’s the rub – he has missed games the past two seasons with injuries and substance-abuse suspensions. He’s still getting back to peak performance this year, but that won’t keep him from being a monster free agent this offseason. There will be some hesitancy to give Bell a massive guarantee. If not in Pittsburgh, he’ll get it somewhere. It just may not be raining down from every NFL suitor.
Next three:
Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers
Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders
Christine Michael, Seattle Seahawks
FULLBACK
Kyle Juszczyk, Baltimore Ravens: He’s one of the best and most heavily used fullbacks in the NFL. While it’s a position that doesn’t see much value in free agency anymore, Juszczyk is at least a complete player. He can run and pass block with the best of them, and has good receiving skills. He’ll be prized by teams that want a fullback who has the versatility to be on the field with regularity. He fits Baltimore well and won’t cost a mint to keep in the fold, so there’s a high likelihood that he stays put. If not, suitors looking to beat opponents up in the running game will be lining up.
Next three:
Jerome Felton, Buffalo Bills
Patrick DiMarco, Atlanta Falcons
James Develin, New England Patriots
WIDE RECEIVER
Terrelle Pryor, Cleveland Browns: Under normal circumstances, this would have been Chicago Bears wideout Alshon Jeffery. Unfortunately, his four-game suspension for a PED violation on Monday only raises another flag for an oft-injured player whose peak season was all the way back in 2013. That reality yields the top spot to Pryor, who gets the nod over Kenny Britt for his versatility and ceiling. Pryor is continuing to develop at the position and may have the most room to grow of any wideout available this offseason. He has had some ups and downs this season, which isn’t surprising considering the overall state of the Browns – but his combination of size, speed and production will create a robust market for him. He’s also done it with poor quarterback play and inside the most trying of seasons. Cleveland isn’t inclined to let him go, but the Browns are going to have to make a serious commitment to retain him. Barring a collapse or significant injury, that means the starting point for Pryor’s next deal is somewhere in the neighborhood of what the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Allen Hurns and Los Angeles Rams’ Tavon Austin signed (Think: four years, $40 million to $42 million with $16 million to $18 million guaranteed). If he doesn’t get that in Cleveland, he’ll get it somewhere in the NFL.
Next three:
Kenny Britt, Los Angeles Rams
Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals
Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears
TIGHT END
Martellus Bennett, New England Patriots: Bennett’s age (he’ll be 30 when next season starts) should knock him off this perch. But he’s a special centerpiece tight end who can create hellacious matchup problems when he’s healthy. The Patriots are inclined to keep him if the price tag doesn’t get foolish. But some teams that are inside a Super Bowl window or looking for a big target for a young franchise quarterback will surely be interested if New England isn’t up to cutting Bennett one last big deal. He should have at least three prime seasons left. That will be enough to make him the most sought after tight end in free agency.
Next three:
Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts
Vance McDonald, San Francisco 49ers
Vernon Davis, Washington Redskins
OFFENSIVE TACKLE
Ryan Schraeder, Atlanta Falcons: He’s been one of the best right tackles in the NFL this season. Put him next to a good guard and he should hold that distinction for a long time. He’s young, has good hands and athletic feet. That should put him at the top of a tackle class filled with solid options on the right side. He’s good in both the run and pass game. Basically, he’s the Mitchell Schwartz of this offseason. He’ll likely remain in Atlanta as the Falcons continue to push to extend him before the end of the season. If that doesn’t happen, a number of teams will step up in hopes of solidifying the right side of their line.
Next three:
Ricky Wagner (RT), Baltimore Ravens
Riley Reiff (RT), Detroit Lions
Marcus Cannon (RT), New England Patriots
GUARD
Kevin Zeitler, Cincinnati Bengals: While this season has been far from perfect for Zeitler, the 2012 first-round pick has essentially been a rock at guard for the Bengals since Day 1. He’s adept in the pass and run games and will be one of the most coveted free agents on the market. The Bengals could seek to extend him before the season ends, but it appears he’ll go to market at this point. No matter where he lands, someone will pay him a top-tier guard contract.
Next three:
T.J. Lang, Green Bay Packers
Ronald Leary, Dallas Cowboys
Larry Warford, Detroit Lions
CENTER
J.C. Tretter, Green Bay Packers: Tretter is athletic and a particularly good pass blocker. This is his first season as full-time starter and there have been some growing pains, but he has been a solid starting center and could still have some room for growth in his game. Center isn’t a sexy position in free agency and this is fairly weak crop, but Tretter will get some attention if the Packers aren’t inclined to keep him around. He represents a reliable starting piece that doesn’t force anyone to break the bank for his services.
Next three:
A.Q. Shipley, Arizona Cardinals
Joe Hawley, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Brian Schwenke, Tennessee Titans
The Giants’ Jason Pierre-Paul has 1.5 sacks in eight games this season. (Getty Images) The Giants’ Jason Pierre-Paul has 1.5 sacks in eight games this season. (Getty Images)
MoreDEFENSIVE END
Jason Pierre-Paul (4-3), New York Giants: It’s not a great crop of defensive ends, unless you’re running a 3-4 scheme or willing to take a 3-4 outside linebacker and slide them down into a defensive end spot. Frankly, this weak group would look a lot better if New England’s Jabaal Sheard didn’t appear to be falling off this season. That leaves Pierre-Paul to pick up the slack. He’s not exactly doing well in that department, managing a meager 1½ sacks this season. But he has been active and providing pressure on the quarterback. He’s still not the same player he was before his hand injury, but he could quell some concerns with a good second half. He may have to spend the remainder of his career next to a dominant defensive tackle to be most effective. Pierre-Paul still has the skills to attack but it remains to be seen if teams will pay a guy who might have problems finishing his pressures.
Next three:
Calais Campbell (3-4), Arizona Cardinals
Lawrence Guy (3-4), Baltimore Ravens
Jabaal Sheard (4-3), New England Patriots
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
Kawann Short, Carolina Panthers: He’s a shade of his 2015 self from a pass rushing standpoint, and that has to alarm teams that will be staring down an elite defensive tackle contract. Essentially, in Short’s four-year career, his 11-sack season in 2015 is looking like an outlier. He’s also struggling with a Super Bowl hangover alongside seemingly everyone on the Panthers’ roster. But with two sacks in his past three games, he’s showing some signs of a spark. If he regains his form the remainder of the season, teams will be all over him again in free agency. The Panthers seem unlikely to sign him to a big extension if that doesn’t happen. Even if Short doesn’t explode down the stretch, he has got great interior quickness and is a top-shelf run plugger with pass rushing upside. That alone will land him one of the more lucrative contracts in free agency.
Next three:
Dontari Poe, Kansas City Chiefs
Bennie Logan, Philadelphia Eagles
Nick Fairley, New Orleans Saints
OUTSIDE LINEBACKER
Chandler Jones, Arizona Cardinals: He’s got three sacks in his past three games and notched his first multi-sack game of the season against the San Francisco 49ers this week. That should ramp up extension talks with the Cardinals, which have been ongoing for a few weeks now. Considering the Cardinals gave up a second-round pick to acquire Jones and that he has been providing a solid pass rush, it’s likely something gets done. If it doesn’t, Jones will be one of the top free agents on the market. He grades out among the top six or seven edge rushers in the NFL on passing snaps, and those are the guys who have extreme demand on the open market. Jones will be no different.
Next three:
Melvin Ingram, San Diego Chargers
Jamie Collins, Cleveland Browns
Nick Perry, Green Bay Packers
INSIDE LINEBACKER
Dont’a Hightower, New England Patriots: He’s the top priority for the Patriots among a massive heap of free agents. He basically fits everything head coach Bill Belichick is looking for, which is why he hasn’t gotten dealt like Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. Essentially, he’s the core of the defense and that makes it very likely the Patriots will use the franchise tag on him if a long-term extension can’t be reached. If for some reason that doesn’t happen, Hightower will be one of the most coveted players to hit free agency. He can pivot between run and pass defense at a high level and can also provide a pass rush from the guts of the defense. If New England won’t pay him, a number of teams will gladly take the opportunity.
Next three:
Zach Brown, Buffalo Bills
Gerald Hodges, San Francisco 49ers
Perry Riley, Oakland Raiders
CORNERBACK
Trumaine Johnson, Los Angeles Rams: He’s been playing through an ankle injury this season and that has depressed his numbers and consistency a bit. But teams know what Johnson is – specifically, a cover corner with size and speed and the ability to follow an opponent’s best wideout around the field. He also can produce big plays when teams try to test him. The Rams will make a meaningful run to extend him. If they can’t make it happen, Johnson will be among Dont’a Hightower, Chandler Jones, Kawann Short and Eric Berry as one of the most pursued free agents this offseason.
Next three:
A.J. Bouye, Houston Texans
Stephon Gilmore, Buffalo Bills
Captain Munnerlyn, Minnesota Vikings
SAFETY
Eric Berry (FS), Kansas City Chiefs: Berry was already having a very good season before he almost single-handedly turned the tide against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday with a stunning 42-yard interception return for a touchdown. If there was a player who was the difference between a win or loss against the Panthers, it was Berry. He’s a top-end cover guy and playmaker who is also very good in run support. He’s one of the consistently elite safeties in the NFL and will make several game-changing plays a season. The Chiefs will try to get him signed before free agency opens, but just the fact that it has gone this far suggests he’ll test the market. His presence can be a huge boost for almost any lagging secondary. For that reason, he’ll be among the highest-paid free agents this offseason.
Next three:
Tony Jefferson (SS), Arizona Cardinals
Darian Stewart (FS), Denver Broncos
John Cyprien (SS), Jacksonville Jaguars
KICKER
Steven Hauschka, Seattle Seahawks: He’s had some uncharacteristic hiccups here and there, but he’s far and away the best kicker who will be on the open market. He should have another decade of top-level play in him and he’ll be pursued as such. Considering how vital game-winning kickers can be, a franchise tag isn’t out of the question if Seattle can’t get him under a long-term deal.
PUNTER
Bryan Anger, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: He doesn’t have the most massive leg of the few punters who will be available this offseason, but he has good ball placement skills and is very good at working to the coverage strengths of the unit around him.